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Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue was $1.017B and adjusted EBITDA $123.5M; GAAP diluted EPS was -$1.38, driven by $49.2M merger-related expenses and $11.7M debt extinguishment costs . Versus Wall Street consensus, revenue beat while EPS significantly missed (see Estimates Context).
  • Capital return accelerated: $101.3M repurchased (1.4M shares ~3% of launch float) and $0.10 dividend; remaining buyback authorization $898.7M .
  • Synergy target raised by ~10% at the midpoint to $125–$150M annually; integration progress highlighted across marketing/blending, procurement, and SG&A .
  • Leer South longwall restart remains on track for mid-year; development resumed in February and is progressing, expected to support higher productivity post-restart .
  • Liquidity remained strong ($858.3M; cash $388.5M) following refinancing of legacy tax-exempt bonds (10-year term; 5.3% W.A. rate) and extended $600M revolver .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Raised synergy target and execution: “We have increased our targeted range for synergy creation by 10 percent at the midpoint to $125 to $150 million per year…” .
  • Thermal segment resilience and pricing: High CV thermal realized revenue per ton was $63.18 with volumes of 7.1M tons despite three longwall moves; cash cost $42.78 per ton .
  • Capital structure optimization and returns: “Executed well‑timed capital market transactions… bolstering liquidity… reducing interest rates…” and returned $101.3M via buybacks plus dividend .

What Went Wrong

  • GAAP loss and EPS miss: Net loss of $69.3M and diluted EPS of -$1.38 due to merger and debt extinguishment charges .
  • Leer South outage impact: Metallurgical segment cash cost of coal sold was elevated at $91.00 per ton; longwall idle in Q1, reducing volumes and increasing unit costs .
  • International market softness/trade uncertainty: Management cited softer international conditions and trade-related uncertainties affecting pricing and flows, though contracted positions partly offset .

Financial Results

Headline P&L and Margins (sequential trend)

MetricQ4 2024 (oldest)Q1 2025 (newest)
Revenues ($USD)$569.8M*$1,017.4M
Net Income ($USD)$30.8M -$69.3M
Diluted EPS - Continuing Ops ($USD)$1.04 -$1.38
EBITDA ($USD)$153.2M*$104.8M*
EBITDA Margin (%)26.7%*10.3%*
EBIT Margin (%)16.5%*-1.65%*
Gross Profit Margin (%)31.5%*14.46%*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Q1 2025 vs Wall Street Consensus

MetricConsensusActualDelta
Primary EPS ($USD)$1.605*-$0.2369*Miss -$1.84
Revenue ($USD)$980.15M*$1,017.4M Beat +$37.3M

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment KPIs (Q1 2025)

SegmentRevenues ($USD)Tons Sold (M tons)Realized Coal Rev/ton ($)Cash Cost/ton ($)
High CV Thermal$542.1M 7.097 $63.18 $42.78
Metallurgical (total)$304.6M 2.316 $98.26 $91.00
Powder River Basin (PRB)$162.6M 10.707 $14.93 $12.44
Baltimore Marine Terminal$21.2M ———

Metallurgical coking vs thermal byproduct detail:

MetricCoking CoalThermal ByproductMetallurgical Total
Realized Coal Revenue ($USD)$213.1M $14.5M $227.6M
Tons Sold (M tons)1.874 0.442 2.316
Realized Rev/ton ($)$113.70 $32.83 $98.26

Liquidity and FCF

MetricQ1 2025
Total Liquidity ($USD)$858.3M
Cash & Equivalents ($USD)$388.5M
Free Cash Flow ($USD)$49.1M

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Feb 20)Current Guidance (May 8)Change
Coking Sales Volume (M tons)FY 20257.5–8.0 7.5–8.0 Maintained
High CV Thermal Sales Volume (M tons)FY 202529.0–31.0 29.0–31.0 Maintained
PRB Sales Volume (M tons)FY 202536.0–40.0 39.0–42.0 Raised
Committed/Priced Coking (M tons, $/ton)FY 20251.5 @ $135.82 2.9 @ $122.38 Volume raised, price lower (mix/market)
Committed/Priced High CV Thermal (M tons, $/ton)FY 202524.0 @ $61–$63 26.0 @ $61–$63 Raised volume
Committed/Priced PRB (M tons, $/ton)FY 202536.9 @ $14.78 41.9 @ $14.77 Raised volume
Metallurgical Cash Cost/ton ($)FY 2025$96–$100 (S2H: low $90s) $94–$98 (S2H: low $90s) Lowered range
High CV Thermal Cash Cost/ton ($)FY 2025$38–$40 $38–$40 Maintained
PRB Cash Cost/ton ($)FY 2025$13.75–$14.25 $13.75–$14.25 Maintained
Capital Expenditures ($M)FY 2025$300–$330 $300–$330 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Synergies~$110–$140M target; ~$40M early run-rate captured across blending/logistics, SG&A, procurement Target increased to $125–$150M; continued execution across streams Improving
Leer SouthCombustion event; resume development quickly; longwall restart mid-year On track for mid-year longwall restart; development pace supports higher productivity Stabilizing to positive
Thermal contracting/pricing24.6M committed/priced @ $61–$63; EMA sensitivity to PJM power prices 26.0M committed/priced @ $61–$63; strong domestic/industrial demand Stronger contracted base
Tariffs/macroChina tariff impact manageable via trade flow re-routing; domestic demand strong Trade uncertainties persist; contracted book offsets softness; domestic conditions improved Manageable headwind
Capital returnsAnnounced framework: ~75% FCF to returns; $1B authorization Executed $101.3M buybacks; dividend; $898.7M authorization left Executing

For Q1 2025 earnings call content and participants, see external transcript sources .

Management Commentary

  • “We continue to make substantial progress on all fronts and remain on track to resume longwall production by mid-year… development work… is progressing at a strong pace… expected to translate into higher longwall productivity once longwall operations resume.” — Paul A. Lang, CEO .
  • “During the quarter, we executed on several capital market transactions… bolstered our liquidity, extended maturities… We are in an excellent position to opportunistically deploy our significant cash balances towards the capital return program…” — Mitesh Thakkar, President & CFO .
  • “Core’s substantial contracted position… is acting to counterbalance current export market softness… the domestic thermal market… has improved markedly…” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Themes on the Q1 call included synergy trajectory, guidance reaffirmation/improvement across segments, and Leer South restart timing; management reiterated the mid‑year restart and raised synergy targets to $125–$150M .
  • Participants included Deck Slone (SVP Strategy), Paul Lang (CEO), Mitesh Thakkar (President & CFO), and Bob Braithwaite (SVP Sales & Marketing); analysts from Benchmark, Jefferies, B. Riley participated .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025: Revenue beat, EPS miss. Consensus revenue $980.15M vs actual $1,017.4M; Primary EPS consensus $1.605 vs actual -$0.2369. Expect sell-side to reduce EPS/EBITDA near term due to merger and debt-extinguishment charges, while raising volume/cost assumptions in PRB and High CV Thermal given stronger contracting . Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
MetricQ1 2025 ConsensusQ1 2025 Actual
Primary EPS ($)1.605*-0.2369*
Revenue ($)980,150,000*1,017,406,000

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Lean into the thermal contracted book: High CV Thermal demonstrates strong realized pricing and cash margins despite market softness; PRB volume guidance raised; this underpins cash returns near term .
  • Synergy runway is expanding: Upward revision to $125–$150M and continued execution across blending/logistics and SG&A provides EBITDA cushioning through 2H as Leer South resumes .
  • Mid‑year operational catalyst: Leer South longwall restart should improve metallurgical volumes and lower unit costs; watch for 2H cost normalization to low‑$90s/ton .
  • Capital returns are active and flexible: $898.7M buyback authorization remains; liquidity robust; expect continued opportunistic repurchases alongside sustaining dividend .
  • Macro/trade risks manageable: Contracted positions and the ability to redirect volumes mitigate tariff uncertainty; domestic power and industrial demand strengthening .
  • Near-term trading setup: Revenue beat vs EPS miss can create volatility; focus on cash generation from thermal segments and confirmation of Leer South restart timeline as stock catalysts .
  • Medium-term thesis: Two complementary segments (met and high CV thermal), strategic terminals, first-quartile cost positions, and increasing synergies support multi-year FCF generation and returns, even through cyclical pricing .
Notes: 
- Where values are marked with *, they were retrieved from S&P Global.